2/18/05
2/16/05
From the Daily Reckoning mail list
So far, dear reader, it really has been another American Century. In the last century, America was still young, restless, earnest, with bulging muscles and an empty head... full of energy and ideas...bursting to make things and sell them...to make a name for itself...to get rich by working hard. In the 21st century, on the other hand, America has become soft, middle aged, with its noggin full of TV drivel - no wonder she seems to want to make a public spectacle of herself.
The tech bubble on Wall Street in the late '90s was silly and embarrassing. It really didn't matter. In fact, it was entertaining...and educational. People who should have lost money did. And they probably would have lost a lot more, but the feds stepped in and started throwing cash around. And now the whole country - economically and politically - has bubbled up.
From Washington, D.C. comes news that the real estate bubble is still taking air. Prices in the region rose 24% last year - six times as fast as GDP, eight times the rate of CPI inflation, 10 times a much as stocks. When you're making that kind of money, why save? And why not enjoy it? It's so easy to "take out" a little from time to time to pay for college, vacations, and renovations.
"When one segment of society loses its head," said a dinner guest last night, "it seems to infect the whole body of society: individuals, government and business, too."
Over the last five years, houses have beaten stocks almost everywhere in America. In hot markets - major cities on both coasts - the gains in houses have been spectacular. Many buyers never set foot on the property, says the Washington Times report. They buy before the place is built...and flip it before the carpet is laid down. And from our own MoneyWeek magazine in London comes news that the English are getting in on the game as well. Property prices in London have peaked out. Getting no offers, a friend told us she had taken her apartment off the market. "It was all a kind of fantasy," she explained. "We thought we were going to make so much money on it, we couldn't not sell it. But we actually like the place and are happy to hold onto it."
But in America, the fantasy of getting rich without risk or sweat has entered the bone marrow. Neither NASDAQ crash...nor a war...nor a recession...nor a drop in the dollar...has been able to get it out. Instead, it grows...metastasizes...and weakens the whole nation. And even the English want a piece of the action. House prices are still very high in England...and seem to be going down. So, many English buyers are looking for houses in America, says the MoneyWeek report. They might live in a rented apartment in London, but they have the pride of homeownership and the hope of profits - in America.
Yesterday, we mentioned our "Trade of the Decade." We made a little from rising gold prices, so far. And a little from falling stock prices. But the best is still ahead, we think. Richard Russell pointed out yesterday that dividend yields rose to over 10% at the bottom of the '30s bear market. At the darkest moment of WWII, they rose to 7.8%. And again in '82, they were over 7%.
When things look good, by contrast, yields fall. In 1929, yields fell to 3.1%. Never have they been lower than 2.6% - until recently. Now, dividend yields are below 2%. Never have stocks been more expensive, in other words, then they have been for the last five to seven years. Investors have made no money in that time. Instead, they've been worn out with mini-rallies and mini-retreats...back and forth, burning up energy...paying commission and taxes. Sooner or later, they'll get tired of it and stocks will go down. Then, they'll sink to the point where they yield 6%...7%...maybe even 10%.
The only reason they haven't gone down yet is the same reason U.S. consumers continue to ruin themselves...and housing speculators get so rich - the Greenspan Fed has humbugged them all. Now investors, homeowners, and speculators - all suffer the same symptoms - recklessness and delusions of grandeur.
So far, dear reader, it really has been another American Century. In the last century, America was still young, restless, earnest, with bulging muscles and an empty head... full of energy and ideas...bursting to make things and sell them...to make a name for itself...to get rich by working hard. In the 21st century, on the other hand, America has become soft, middle aged, with its noggin full of TV drivel - no wonder she seems to want to make a public spectacle of herself.
The tech bubble on Wall Street in the late '90s was silly and embarrassing. It really didn't matter. In fact, it was entertaining...and educational. People who should have lost money did. And they probably would have lost a lot more, but the feds stepped in and started throwing cash around. And now the whole country - economically and politically - has bubbled up.
From Washington, D.C. comes news that the real estate bubble is still taking air. Prices in the region rose 24% last year - six times as fast as GDP, eight times the rate of CPI inflation, 10 times a much as stocks. When you're making that kind of money, why save? And why not enjoy it? It's so easy to "take out" a little from time to time to pay for college, vacations, and renovations.
"When one segment of society loses its head," said a dinner guest last night, "it seems to infect the whole body of society: individuals, government and business, too."
Over the last five years, houses have beaten stocks almost everywhere in America. In hot markets - major cities on both coasts - the gains in houses have been spectacular. Many buyers never set foot on the property, says the Washington Times report. They buy before the place is built...and flip it before the carpet is laid down. And from our own MoneyWeek magazine in London comes news that the English are getting in on the game as well. Property prices in London have peaked out. Getting no offers, a friend told us she had taken her apartment off the market. "It was all a kind of fantasy," she explained. "We thought we were going to make so much money on it, we couldn't not sell it. But we actually like the place and are happy to hold onto it."
But in America, the fantasy of getting rich without risk or sweat has entered the bone marrow. Neither NASDAQ crash...nor a war...nor a recession...nor a drop in the dollar...has been able to get it out. Instead, it grows...metastasizes...and weakens the whole nation. And even the English want a piece of the action. House prices are still very high in England...and seem to be going down. So, many English buyers are looking for houses in America, says the MoneyWeek report. They might live in a rented apartment in London, but they have the pride of homeownership and the hope of profits - in America.
Yesterday, we mentioned our "Trade of the Decade." We made a little from rising gold prices, so far. And a little from falling stock prices. But the best is still ahead, we think. Richard Russell pointed out yesterday that dividend yields rose to over 10% at the bottom of the '30s bear market. At the darkest moment of WWII, they rose to 7.8%. And again in '82, they were over 7%.
When things look good, by contrast, yields fall. In 1929, yields fell to 3.1%. Never have they been lower than 2.6% - until recently. Now, dividend yields are below 2%. Never have stocks been more expensive, in other words, then they have been for the last five to seven years. Investors have made no money in that time. Instead, they've been worn out with mini-rallies and mini-retreats...back and forth, burning up energy...paying commission and taxes. Sooner or later, they'll get tired of it and stocks will go down. Then, they'll sink to the point where they yield 6%...7%...maybe even 10%.
The only reason they haven't gone down yet is the same reason U.S. consumers continue to ruin themselves...and housing speculators get so rich - the Greenspan Fed has humbugged them all. Now investors, homeowners, and speculators - all suffer the same symptoms - recklessness and delusions of grandeur.
2/14/05
2/3/05
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