Sent: Fri 6/24/2005 6:53 AM
Subject: practice Monday
Hey Breathers..well done once again..yeah, our women carried us to victory...again... with Marie's triumphant return from injury, Miranda's break force throws, Jen's D, Tanya's handling even after her half a beer, Joan's cut that won us game one, and Nadine's just being everywhere with her catching and handling...it helps erase the memory of those hammers that Wade and Paul threw..although they both made up for it with their fieresome D..and let's not forget Carey's awesome speed...we might just have to pay that ransom after all with his upcoming kidnapping adventure in Peru to get'im back.
Schedule's not up yet for next week....should be interesting as we might just land ourselves in Div. 4 with those two victories....but no problem..right?right?
Next week's roster:
Rikki, DJ, Carey, Joan are out..could be me too if my heel doesn't get better. Min is in as a sub. As always, email me by Monday morning if you can't make it after all.
Other roster stuff...we say temporarily au revoir to Jeanette who's now on the sub list and bienvenue back to Marie who rejoins the full time roster.
Practice is on for Monday at the usual place and time to toss the disk around and enjoy those long nights of summer.
We'll chat when the schedule's posted...enjoy the weekend Breathers,
Mark
________________
And Carey's response....
Help I have been abducted. Please send money ASAP. US dollars non-sequential. You can forward the cash to a special associate who will be contacting you directly. Please do not call the police.
Thank you
Carey
6/28/05
6/26/05
Overcoming Procrastination Through the Pull Method: "2. Advice such as 'just buckle down and do it,' 'get organized,' and 'try harder' are based on a dysfunctional definition of procrastination. What they're really saying is: 'If you weren't such a lazy bum you could do this. No fooling around. Life is dull and hard. There's no time for fun. Work is a horrible thing to contemplate, but you have to do it anyway.' Most procrastination happens because through procrastinating we are temporarily able to relieve fears: fear of failure, fear of being imperfect, fear of impossible expectations. Most of these fears, in turn, are ultimately based in the idea that work and life are awful struggles which we must somehow get through and that this whole horrible process will somehow make us better people in the long run."
6/20/05
InvestorsInsight : Thoughts From The Frontline > Print View: "If this reasoning is correct, the implications are quite disturbing given current trends in the current account deficit and the budget deficit. If the US current account deficit continues to expand from its level of $666 billion in 2004, as seems likely so long as the dollar remains at existing exchange rates, then the amount of paper dollars that foreign central banks wish to invest in US government debt will continue to expand. Meanwhile, the US budget deficit is widely expected to be lower in FY2005 (approximately $370 billion) than in FY2004 when it was $413 billion. That means that the government will issue less new debt this year than it did last year. Presumably, the same will be true of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, in light of the accounting scandals in which they have become embroiled. Under such circumstances, there will not be enough new government and agency debt issued to satisfy the demand of foreign central banks. Consequently, they are likely to buy existing debt instead, which will have the effect of pushing up the price of those bonds and driving their yields down even further...regardless of what the Fed does to the Federal Funds rate.
Mortgage rates are determined by the yield on 10 year treasury bonds in the United States. Therefore, if foreign central bank buying drives down the yield on treasury bonds, it will also push down mortgage rates, which in turn will cause the rate of increase in US property prices, already the fastest in 25 years during 2004 (and the fastest ever in real, inflation- adjusted terms), to accelerate still further. Higher property prices will allow yet more equity extraction which, in turn, will stimulate US consumption further. Additional consumption will pull in more imports and exacerbate the US current account deficit. And, a larger current account deficit will put yet more dollars in the hands of foreign central banks, who, then, will look fr still more dollar-denominated assets in which to invest them. At the same time, rising house prices and booming consumption will lift US tax revenues, causing the US budget deficit to shrink much more than currently expected.
In other words, if the US current account continues widening faster than the US budget deficit, it could drive down yields on government bonds and therefore the interest rates on mortgages so low that it creates an asst bubble in the United States that the Fed could not control.
What policy options are still open to global policy makers to prevent the current imbalances from leading to a cycle of spiraling economic overheating along the lines described above? Mr. Greenspan told his Frankfort audience that the US government should reduce its budget deficit in order to reduce the country's current account deficit. Specifically, he said:
Mortgage rates are determined by the yield on 10 year treasury bonds in the United States. Therefore, if foreign central bank buying drives down the yield on treasury bonds, it will also push down mortgage rates, which in turn will cause the rate of increase in US property prices, already the fastest in 25 years during 2004 (and the fastest ever in real, inflation- adjusted terms), to accelerate still further. Higher property prices will allow yet more equity extraction which, in turn, will stimulate US consumption further. Additional consumption will pull in more imports and exacerbate the US current account deficit. And, a larger current account deficit will put yet more dollars in the hands of foreign central banks, who, then, will look fr still more dollar-denominated assets in which to invest them. At the same time, rising house prices and booming consumption will lift US tax revenues, causing the US budget deficit to shrink much more than currently expected.
In other words, if the US current account continues widening faster than the US budget deficit, it could drive down yields on government bonds and therefore the interest rates on mortgages so low that it creates an asst bubble in the United States that the Fed could not control.
What policy options are still open to global policy makers to prevent the current imbalances from leading to a cycle of spiraling economic overheating along the lines described above? Mr. Greenspan told his Frankfort audience that the US government should reduce its budget deficit in order to reduce the country's current account deficit. Specifically, he said:
6/19/05
Living With Social Security: Small Dreams and Safety Nets - New York Times: "GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. - Barbara Amberg used her Social Security checks to fly to New York and see Christo's 'Gates' in Central Park. Shirley Malone lives on hers in subsidized public housing, sometimes washing her clothes in dish detergent to save money.
For Joseph Cohen, a businessman who lost his business, Social Security is the safety net he never thought he would need. 'We're talking about a fortunate guy who had assets to put away,' Mr. Cohen said. 'But without Social Security I would be in bad shape.'
As Congressional Republicans struggle to break a partisan impasse over President Bush's plan to reinvent Social Security and shore up its finances, 32 million older Americans are living the realities of the nation's biggest social program."
For Joseph Cohen, a businessman who lost his business, Social Security is the safety net he never thought he would need. 'We're talking about a fortunate guy who had assets to put away,' Mr. Cohen said. 'But without Social Security I would be in bad shape.'
As Congressional Republicans struggle to break a partisan impasse over President Bush's plan to reinvent Social Security and shore up its finances, 32 million older Americans are living the realities of the nation's biggest social program."
6/18/05
Thoughts from the Frontline: "This week we will look with fresh eyes at an old problem: US pension funds, both public and private, are under-funded, and the situation is getting worse. And the US taxpayer is going to get to fund the difference. The recent slew of data on pension funds suggests that little is being done to correct the huge and mounting problems I have written about for years. Even the recent market upturns of the past few years have not been as big a help as it should have been. I wrote this over two years ago:
'...there is something north of $1 trillion dollars in equity assets in the 123 state pension funds covered in this [Wilshire] study. My back of the napkin analysis shows that pension fund estimates assume that the equity portion of the pension fund assets will grow by 10% or around $100 billion per year.
'That means in 7 years and at 10% compounding, they are assuming there will be approximately $1 trillion dollars in growth from the equity portion of their assets.
'If the stock market is flat, they will be short $1 trillion in only 7 years, from a 'mere' $180 billion shortfall today. If the market grows at 3%, the states will be down $750 billion from their estimates.'
In the last few years since then, corporate earnings have grown well above the long term trend and the broad stock market has grown over 10% a year. Surely, then, things should better. Sadly, they have not improved. Let's look at some recent data. First, let's look at corporate America and then at Public (state, county and city) pension funds.
Companies with underfunded pension plans reported a record shortfall of $353.7 billion in their latest filings with the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), Executive Director Bradley Belt told the Senate Finance Committee last week. That is up considerably from the $279 billion reported a year earlier, and over $300 billion from four years ago. The total increase in underfunding last year was $75 billio"
'...there is something north of $1 trillion dollars in equity assets in the 123 state pension funds covered in this [Wilshire] study. My back of the napkin analysis shows that pension fund estimates assume that the equity portion of the pension fund assets will grow by 10% or around $100 billion per year.
'That means in 7 years and at 10% compounding, they are assuming there will be approximately $1 trillion dollars in growth from the equity portion of their assets.
'If the stock market is flat, they will be short $1 trillion in only 7 years, from a 'mere' $180 billion shortfall today. If the market grows at 3%, the states will be down $750 billion from their estimates.'
In the last few years since then, corporate earnings have grown well above the long term trend and the broad stock market has grown over 10% a year. Surely, then, things should better. Sadly, they have not improved. Let's look at some recent data. First, let's look at corporate America and then at Public (state, county and city) pension funds.
Companies with underfunded pension plans reported a record shortfall of $353.7 billion in their latest filings with the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), Executive Director Bradley Belt told the Senate Finance Committee last week. That is up considerably from the $279 billion reported a year earlier, and over $300 billion from four years ago. The total increase in underfunding last year was $75 billio"
Panic now, avoid the rush
Marketing of course, but worth thinking about. What if the borrowing stops? What if Fannie Mae goes belly up? Who buys houses when they are sixty times their annual salary?
The premise: we have run out of borrowers and the last gasp of the herd were on interest only loans -> people who are at the end of their financial rope already. So what happens when interest rates increase?
" 1. The pool of qualifying homebuyers will shrink 40% if interest rates notch up just a fraction. You'll see the effects fast as houses sit on the market and selling prices fall way below asking prices.
2. Even borrowers who still qualify will be able to buy "less house." The couple who can borrow $195,000 today will be able to borrow only $159,000. Home prices will buckle under the pressure.
3. Soaring interest rates will push up monthly payments on ARMs by 50%. Unable to pay, homeowners will default. More downward pressure on home prices.
4. Seeing their homes fall in value, consumers will pull back on spending - and they'll pull back hard. Studies show they cut back twice as much for a dollar loss in home values as they do for the same loss in the stock market. After the dot-com bust, people went on spending. They won't this time.
5. Corporate profits will plummet along with consumer spending. But you won't have to wait. Investors will see what's coming and dump stocks long before the spending figures and earnings reports come out.
6. The wave of defaults will hit all lenders hard, but it will sink Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Unable to service trillions in obligations, they'll go under.
7. Realizing the party is over, every investor in the world will try to get out at once. Every investment tied to interest rates will sink like a stone. Houses and bonds will lead the way down. Stocks will follow really fast. How can we be so sure?"
Marketing of course, but worth thinking about. What if the borrowing stops? What if Fannie Mae goes belly up? Who buys houses when they are sixty times their annual salary?
The premise: we have run out of borrowers and the last gasp of the herd were on interest only loans -> people who are at the end of their financial rope already. So what happens when interest rates increase?
" 1. The pool of qualifying homebuyers will shrink 40% if interest rates notch up just a fraction. You'll see the effects fast as houses sit on the market and selling prices fall way below asking prices.
2. Even borrowers who still qualify will be able to buy "less house." The couple who can borrow $195,000 today will be able to borrow only $159,000. Home prices will buckle under the pressure.
3. Soaring interest rates will push up monthly payments on ARMs by 50%. Unable to pay, homeowners will default. More downward pressure on home prices.
4. Seeing their homes fall in value, consumers will pull back on spending - and they'll pull back hard. Studies show they cut back twice as much for a dollar loss in home values as they do for the same loss in the stock market. After the dot-com bust, people went on spending. They won't this time.
5. Corporate profits will plummet along with consumer spending. But you won't have to wait. Investors will see what's coming and dump stocks long before the spending figures and earnings reports come out.
6. The wave of defaults will hit all lenders hard, but it will sink Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Unable to service trillions in obligations, they'll go under.
7. Realizing the party is over, every investor in the world will try to get out at once. Every investment tied to interest rates will sink like a stone. Houses and bonds will lead the way down. Stocks will follow really fast. How can we be so sure?"
6/17/05
Dearest Breathers...wasn't that a great last half of the game last night? Sean's great end zone grab, Joan showing up to help us reel off 5 straight points, Wade leaving the hammer behind, Stevie arriving after walking his way there for 112 blocks, Jen and her hands of glue....imagine what we could have done if the whole game had gone like that! The key is to crack open that beer just a half hour earlier I guess...
Another Heavy Breathing start cost us a bit last night..but we more than made up for that with our good time at the Reef afterwards...we might not be winning every game, but we're still undefeated in having a good time when the team gathers together!
Another Heavy Breathing start cost us a bit last night..but we more than made up for that with our good time at the Reef afterwards...we might not be winning every game, but we're still undefeated in having a good time when the team gathers together!
6/12/05
Thoughts from the Frontline
An interest article on the changing demographics in the world. It made me reconsider several assumptions I believed to be true -- the hallmark of interesting reading.
An interest article on the changing demographics in the world. It made me reconsider several assumptions I believed to be true -- the hallmark of interesting reading.
6/11/05
Dearest Breathers...I have decided that it's most fun every week to start with a Jen story....my personal favourite is her between the ankles catch in game 2 that made 'hot red pants' girl (see Wade,,you never know what you miss) mad and kept the momentum on Heavy Breathing's side. Not to be outdone by that catch,,,or the great cookies that Jen brought!... there was Sean with his hands of glue last night, Carey playing with the legs of a 14 year old instead of a 40 year old, and that DJ/Rikki combo smoothly handling things in the handling, diving, and making awesome catches dept....and that was just Rikki herself! The welcome return of Glenn Kerr as we landed on his East Van. turf also made for a fun night. And, for those who missed the evening, we won both games!
6/9/05
6/5/05
Wired 13.06: START: "For nearly four years - steadily, seriously, and with the unsentimental rigor for which we love them - civil engineers have been studying the destruction of the World Trade Center towers, sifting the tragedy for its lessons. And it turns out that one of the lessons is: Disobey authority. In a connected world, ordinary people often have access to better information than officials do."
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