On the swing
8/11/05
8/7/05
7/13/05
7/2/05
.:. procycling .:.: "Jan Ullrich, winner of the 1997 Tour de France, has consistently been Lance Armstrong's biggest rival at the race and the German looks in better shape than ever. But Ullrich suffered a setback on Friday morning, suffering a training crash that left him with neck wounds after his head smashed through the rear window of his team car. His T-Mobile team, however, say that there is no serious damage done."
This really is a great official statement. I was going fast enough to put my bare head through the back window of the car I was following but it was just a flesh wound. The fact I have to ride 2100+ km in the next 22 days with whiplash won't affect my performance at all.
It's a shame. If T-Mobile falls back there aren't a lot of teams who can challenge Armstrong.
This really is a great official statement. I was going fast enough to put my bare head through the back window of the car I was following but it was just a flesh wound. The fact I have to ride 2100+ km in the next 22 days with whiplash won't affect my performance at all.
It's a shame. If T-Mobile falls back there aren't a lot of teams who can challenge Armstrong.
Ultimate highlights
Hey Breathers...great start to Div. 4 on Wednesday! Two solid games and
one great win. Personal highlights for me from my beer drinking and chip
chewing vantage point were...well, hands down, game 1's 13-12 victory
was one of our best games of the year... but for other highlights there
was also Paul jumping twice his height on a regular basis, Stevie's left
handed endzone grab in game two, hammers thrown left right and center
that actually arrived at their destinations (you remember those days
don't ya Wade?), the amazing Stevie/Sean popping team, the husband and
wife duo of Kyi Handlers Inc. handling amazingly despite the hubby's
dislocated shoulder, Nadine's awesome play, Miranda's always being open
and making some thread the needle throws, and Marie's great cutting, but
most importantly, her spice cake! My only question would be how one of
Stevie's grade one students made it on to the field to play in game 2?
Those temper tantrums were a dead giveaway.
First, no practice Monday.
Second, keep thinking 'bout fall league. The official email will be
coming soon!
Third, next singleheader is July 20th. That means team dinner and drinks!
Fourth, next week's games.
Right now, Wade, Mark, Rikki, and DJ are out. Paul might only be around
for game 1.
Ladies and Gentlemen, a big round of applause for Glenn Kerr who'll be
joining us (your cleats are in the ulty bag Glenner!)
*Email me by Monday at noon if you are out and I will send out the final
roster Monday night. If you already know you are out for the week of the
13th, let me know that too since I won't be on email all next week. *
**
And the games? We're at Winona North, the upper field at 59th and Yukon.
We're up against Unassigned Players and then the Huckin' Hobbits.
Let's hope summer's back for Wednesday.
see ya Breathers,
Mark
6/28/05
Sent: Fri 6/24/2005 6:53 AM
Subject: practice Monday
Hey Breathers..well done once again..yeah, our women carried us to victory...again... with Marie's triumphant return from injury, Miranda's break force throws, Jen's D, Tanya's handling even after her half a beer, Joan's cut that won us game one, and Nadine's just being everywhere with her catching and handling...it helps erase the memory of those hammers that Wade and Paul threw..although they both made up for it with their fieresome D..and let's not forget Carey's awesome speed...we might just have to pay that ransom after all with his upcoming kidnapping adventure in Peru to get'im back.
Schedule's not up yet for next week....should be interesting as we might just land ourselves in Div. 4 with those two victories....but no problem..right?right?
Next week's roster:
Rikki, DJ, Carey, Joan are out..could be me too if my heel doesn't get better. Min is in as a sub. As always, email me by Monday morning if you can't make it after all.
Other roster stuff...we say temporarily au revoir to Jeanette who's now on the sub list and bienvenue back to Marie who rejoins the full time roster.
Practice is on for Monday at the usual place and time to toss the disk around and enjoy those long nights of summer.
We'll chat when the schedule's posted...enjoy the weekend Breathers,
Mark
________________
And Carey's response....
Help I have been abducted. Please send money ASAP. US dollars non-sequential. You can forward the cash to a special associate who will be contacting you directly. Please do not call the police.
Thank you
Carey
Subject: practice Monday
Hey Breathers..well done once again..yeah, our women carried us to victory...again... with Marie's triumphant return from injury, Miranda's break force throws, Jen's D, Tanya's handling even after her half a beer, Joan's cut that won us game one, and Nadine's just being everywhere with her catching and handling...it helps erase the memory of those hammers that Wade and Paul threw..although they both made up for it with their fieresome D..and let's not forget Carey's awesome speed...we might just have to pay that ransom after all with his upcoming kidnapping adventure in Peru to get'im back.
Schedule's not up yet for next week....should be interesting as we might just land ourselves in Div. 4 with those two victories....but no problem..right?right?
Next week's roster:
Rikki, DJ, Carey, Joan are out..could be me too if my heel doesn't get better. Min is in as a sub. As always, email me by Monday morning if you can't make it after all.
Other roster stuff...we say temporarily au revoir to Jeanette who's now on the sub list and bienvenue back to Marie who rejoins the full time roster.
Practice is on for Monday at the usual place and time to toss the disk around and enjoy those long nights of summer.
We'll chat when the schedule's posted...enjoy the weekend Breathers,
Mark
________________
And Carey's response....
Help I have been abducted. Please send money ASAP. US dollars non-sequential. You can forward the cash to a special associate who will be contacting you directly. Please do not call the police.
Thank you
Carey
6/26/05
Overcoming Procrastination Through the Pull Method: "2. Advice such as 'just buckle down and do it,' 'get organized,' and 'try harder' are based on a dysfunctional definition of procrastination. What they're really saying is: 'If you weren't such a lazy bum you could do this. No fooling around. Life is dull and hard. There's no time for fun. Work is a horrible thing to contemplate, but you have to do it anyway.' Most procrastination happens because through procrastinating we are temporarily able to relieve fears: fear of failure, fear of being imperfect, fear of impossible expectations. Most of these fears, in turn, are ultimately based in the idea that work and life are awful struggles which we must somehow get through and that this whole horrible process will somehow make us better people in the long run."
6/20/05
InvestorsInsight : Thoughts From The Frontline > Print View: "If this reasoning is correct, the implications are quite disturbing given current trends in the current account deficit and the budget deficit. If the US current account deficit continues to expand from its level of $666 billion in 2004, as seems likely so long as the dollar remains at existing exchange rates, then the amount of paper dollars that foreign central banks wish to invest in US government debt will continue to expand. Meanwhile, the US budget deficit is widely expected to be lower in FY2005 (approximately $370 billion) than in FY2004 when it was $413 billion. That means that the government will issue less new debt this year than it did last year. Presumably, the same will be true of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, in light of the accounting scandals in which they have become embroiled. Under such circumstances, there will not be enough new government and agency debt issued to satisfy the demand of foreign central banks. Consequently, they are likely to buy existing debt instead, which will have the effect of pushing up the price of those bonds and driving their yields down even further...regardless of what the Fed does to the Federal Funds rate.
Mortgage rates are determined by the yield on 10 year treasury bonds in the United States. Therefore, if foreign central bank buying drives down the yield on treasury bonds, it will also push down mortgage rates, which in turn will cause the rate of increase in US property prices, already the fastest in 25 years during 2004 (and the fastest ever in real, inflation- adjusted terms), to accelerate still further. Higher property prices will allow yet more equity extraction which, in turn, will stimulate US consumption further. Additional consumption will pull in more imports and exacerbate the US current account deficit. And, a larger current account deficit will put yet more dollars in the hands of foreign central banks, who, then, will look fr still more dollar-denominated assets in which to invest them. At the same time, rising house prices and booming consumption will lift US tax revenues, causing the US budget deficit to shrink much more than currently expected.
In other words, if the US current account continues widening faster than the US budget deficit, it could drive down yields on government bonds and therefore the interest rates on mortgages so low that it creates an asst bubble in the United States that the Fed could not control.
What policy options are still open to global policy makers to prevent the current imbalances from leading to a cycle of spiraling economic overheating along the lines described above? Mr. Greenspan told his Frankfort audience that the US government should reduce its budget deficit in order to reduce the country's current account deficit. Specifically, he said:
Mortgage rates are determined by the yield on 10 year treasury bonds in the United States. Therefore, if foreign central bank buying drives down the yield on treasury bonds, it will also push down mortgage rates, which in turn will cause the rate of increase in US property prices, already the fastest in 25 years during 2004 (and the fastest ever in real, inflation- adjusted terms), to accelerate still further. Higher property prices will allow yet more equity extraction which, in turn, will stimulate US consumption further. Additional consumption will pull in more imports and exacerbate the US current account deficit. And, a larger current account deficit will put yet more dollars in the hands of foreign central banks, who, then, will look fr still more dollar-denominated assets in which to invest them. At the same time, rising house prices and booming consumption will lift US tax revenues, causing the US budget deficit to shrink much more than currently expected.
In other words, if the US current account continues widening faster than the US budget deficit, it could drive down yields on government bonds and therefore the interest rates on mortgages so low that it creates an asst bubble in the United States that the Fed could not control.
What policy options are still open to global policy makers to prevent the current imbalances from leading to a cycle of spiraling economic overheating along the lines described above? Mr. Greenspan told his Frankfort audience that the US government should reduce its budget deficit in order to reduce the country's current account deficit. Specifically, he said:
6/19/05
Living With Social Security: Small Dreams and Safety Nets - New York Times: "GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. - Barbara Amberg used her Social Security checks to fly to New York and see Christo's 'Gates' in Central Park. Shirley Malone lives on hers in subsidized public housing, sometimes washing her clothes in dish detergent to save money.
For Joseph Cohen, a businessman who lost his business, Social Security is the safety net he never thought he would need. 'We're talking about a fortunate guy who had assets to put away,' Mr. Cohen said. 'But without Social Security I would be in bad shape.'
As Congressional Republicans struggle to break a partisan impasse over President Bush's plan to reinvent Social Security and shore up its finances, 32 million older Americans are living the realities of the nation's biggest social program."
For Joseph Cohen, a businessman who lost his business, Social Security is the safety net he never thought he would need. 'We're talking about a fortunate guy who had assets to put away,' Mr. Cohen said. 'But without Social Security I would be in bad shape.'
As Congressional Republicans struggle to break a partisan impasse over President Bush's plan to reinvent Social Security and shore up its finances, 32 million older Americans are living the realities of the nation's biggest social program."
6/18/05
Thoughts from the Frontline: "This week we will look with fresh eyes at an old problem: US pension funds, both public and private, are under-funded, and the situation is getting worse. And the US taxpayer is going to get to fund the difference. The recent slew of data on pension funds suggests that little is being done to correct the huge and mounting problems I have written about for years. Even the recent market upturns of the past few years have not been as big a help as it should have been. I wrote this over two years ago:
'...there is something north of $1 trillion dollars in equity assets in the 123 state pension funds covered in this [Wilshire] study. My back of the napkin analysis shows that pension fund estimates assume that the equity portion of the pension fund assets will grow by 10% or around $100 billion per year.
'That means in 7 years and at 10% compounding, they are assuming there will be approximately $1 trillion dollars in growth from the equity portion of their assets.
'If the stock market is flat, they will be short $1 trillion in only 7 years, from a 'mere' $180 billion shortfall today. If the market grows at 3%, the states will be down $750 billion from their estimates.'
In the last few years since then, corporate earnings have grown well above the long term trend and the broad stock market has grown over 10% a year. Surely, then, things should better. Sadly, they have not improved. Let's look at some recent data. First, let's look at corporate America and then at Public (state, county and city) pension funds.
Companies with underfunded pension plans reported a record shortfall of $353.7 billion in their latest filings with the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), Executive Director Bradley Belt told the Senate Finance Committee last week. That is up considerably from the $279 billion reported a year earlier, and over $300 billion from four years ago. The total increase in underfunding last year was $75 billio"
'...there is something north of $1 trillion dollars in equity assets in the 123 state pension funds covered in this [Wilshire] study. My back of the napkin analysis shows that pension fund estimates assume that the equity portion of the pension fund assets will grow by 10% or around $100 billion per year.
'That means in 7 years and at 10% compounding, they are assuming there will be approximately $1 trillion dollars in growth from the equity portion of their assets.
'If the stock market is flat, they will be short $1 trillion in only 7 years, from a 'mere' $180 billion shortfall today. If the market grows at 3%, the states will be down $750 billion from their estimates.'
In the last few years since then, corporate earnings have grown well above the long term trend and the broad stock market has grown over 10% a year. Surely, then, things should better. Sadly, they have not improved. Let's look at some recent data. First, let's look at corporate America and then at Public (state, county and city) pension funds.
Companies with underfunded pension plans reported a record shortfall of $353.7 billion in their latest filings with the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), Executive Director Bradley Belt told the Senate Finance Committee last week. That is up considerably from the $279 billion reported a year earlier, and over $300 billion from four years ago. The total increase in underfunding last year was $75 billio"
Panic now, avoid the rush
Marketing of course, but worth thinking about. What if the borrowing stops? What if Fannie Mae goes belly up? Who buys houses when they are sixty times their annual salary?
The premise: we have run out of borrowers and the last gasp of the herd were on interest only loans -> people who are at the end of their financial rope already. So what happens when interest rates increase?
" 1. The pool of qualifying homebuyers will shrink 40% if interest rates notch up just a fraction. You'll see the effects fast as houses sit on the market and selling prices fall way below asking prices.
2. Even borrowers who still qualify will be able to buy "less house." The couple who can borrow $195,000 today will be able to borrow only $159,000. Home prices will buckle under the pressure.
3. Soaring interest rates will push up monthly payments on ARMs by 50%. Unable to pay, homeowners will default. More downward pressure on home prices.
4. Seeing their homes fall in value, consumers will pull back on spending - and they'll pull back hard. Studies show they cut back twice as much for a dollar loss in home values as they do for the same loss in the stock market. After the dot-com bust, people went on spending. They won't this time.
5. Corporate profits will plummet along with consumer spending. But you won't have to wait. Investors will see what's coming and dump stocks long before the spending figures and earnings reports come out.
6. The wave of defaults will hit all lenders hard, but it will sink Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Unable to service trillions in obligations, they'll go under.
7. Realizing the party is over, every investor in the world will try to get out at once. Every investment tied to interest rates will sink like a stone. Houses and bonds will lead the way down. Stocks will follow really fast. How can we be so sure?"
Marketing of course, but worth thinking about. What if the borrowing stops? What if Fannie Mae goes belly up? Who buys houses when they are sixty times their annual salary?
The premise: we have run out of borrowers and the last gasp of the herd were on interest only loans -> people who are at the end of their financial rope already. So what happens when interest rates increase?
" 1. The pool of qualifying homebuyers will shrink 40% if interest rates notch up just a fraction. You'll see the effects fast as houses sit on the market and selling prices fall way below asking prices.
2. Even borrowers who still qualify will be able to buy "less house." The couple who can borrow $195,000 today will be able to borrow only $159,000. Home prices will buckle under the pressure.
3. Soaring interest rates will push up monthly payments on ARMs by 50%. Unable to pay, homeowners will default. More downward pressure on home prices.
4. Seeing their homes fall in value, consumers will pull back on spending - and they'll pull back hard. Studies show they cut back twice as much for a dollar loss in home values as they do for the same loss in the stock market. After the dot-com bust, people went on spending. They won't this time.
5. Corporate profits will plummet along with consumer spending. But you won't have to wait. Investors will see what's coming and dump stocks long before the spending figures and earnings reports come out.
6. The wave of defaults will hit all lenders hard, but it will sink Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Unable to service trillions in obligations, they'll go under.
7. Realizing the party is over, every investor in the world will try to get out at once. Every investment tied to interest rates will sink like a stone. Houses and bonds will lead the way down. Stocks will follow really fast. How can we be so sure?"
6/17/05
Dearest Breathers...wasn't that a great last half of the game last night? Sean's great end zone grab, Joan showing up to help us reel off 5 straight points, Wade leaving the hammer behind, Stevie arriving after walking his way there for 112 blocks, Jen and her hands of glue....imagine what we could have done if the whole game had gone like that! The key is to crack open that beer just a half hour earlier I guess...
Another Heavy Breathing start cost us a bit last night..but we more than made up for that with our good time at the Reef afterwards...we might not be winning every game, but we're still undefeated in having a good time when the team gathers together!
Another Heavy Breathing start cost us a bit last night..but we more than made up for that with our good time at the Reef afterwards...we might not be winning every game, but we're still undefeated in having a good time when the team gathers together!
6/12/05
Thoughts from the Frontline
An interest article on the changing demographics in the world. It made me reconsider several assumptions I believed to be true -- the hallmark of interesting reading.
An interest article on the changing demographics in the world. It made me reconsider several assumptions I believed to be true -- the hallmark of interesting reading.
6/11/05
Dearest Breathers...I have decided that it's most fun every week to start with a Jen story....my personal favourite is her between the ankles catch in game 2 that made 'hot red pants' girl (see Wade,,you never know what you miss) mad and kept the momentum on Heavy Breathing's side. Not to be outdone by that catch,,,or the great cookies that Jen brought!... there was Sean with his hands of glue last night, Carey playing with the legs of a 14 year old instead of a 40 year old, and that DJ/Rikki combo smoothly handling things in the handling, diving, and making awesome catches dept....and that was just Rikki herself! The welcome return of Glenn Kerr as we landed on his East Van. turf also made for a fun night. And, for those who missed the evening, we won both games!
6/9/05
6/5/05
Wired 13.06: START: "For nearly four years - steadily, seriously, and with the unsentimental rigor for which we love them - civil engineers have been studying the destruction of the World Trade Center towers, sifting the tragedy for its lessons. And it turns out that one of the lessons is: Disobey authority. In a connected world, ordinary people often have access to better information than officials do."
5/29/05
5/28/05
5/20/05
5/6/05
5/1/05
4/17/05
4/16/05
Source:
CRYPTO-GRAM
April 15, 2005
by Bruce Schneier
Founder and CTO
Counterpane Internet Security, Inc.
schneier@counterpane.com
http://www.schneier.com
Secure Flight Is in Trouble
Report #1: There's a report from the Department of Homeland Security's Inspector General that the TSA lied about its role in obtaining personal information about 12 million airline passengers to test Secure Flight.
The report doesn't explicitly say that the TSA lied, but the TSA lied.
The details are worth reading. And when you read it, keep in mind that it's written by the DHS's own Inspector General. I presume a more independent investigator would be even more severe. Not that the report isn't severe, mind you. Here are some highlights from an AP story:
"The report cites several occasions where TSA officials made inaccurate statements about passenger data:
"In September 2003, the agency's Freedom of Information Act staff received hundreds of requests from Jet Blue passengers asking if the TSA had their records. After a cursory search, the FOIA staff posted a notice on the TSA Web site that it had no JetBlue passenger data. Though the FOIA staff found JetBlue passenger records in TSA's possession in May, the notice stayed on the Web site for more than a year.
"In November 2003, TSA chief James Loy incorrectly told the Governmental Affairs Committee that certain kinds of passenger data were not being used to test passenger prescreening.
"In September 2003, a technology magazine reporter asked a TSA spokesman whether real data were used to test the passenger prescreening system. The spokesman said only fake data were used; the responses "were not accurate," the report said."
There's much more. The report reveals that TSA ordered Delta Air Lines to turn over passenger data in February 2002 to help the Secret Service determine whether terrorists or their associates were traveling in the vicinity of the Salt Lake City Olympics.
It also reveals that TSA used passenger data from JetBlue in the spring of 2003 to figure out how to change the number of people who would be selected for more screening under the existing system.
The report says that one of the TSA's contractors working on passenger prescreening, Lockheed Martin, used a data sample from ChoicePoint.
The report also details how outside contractors used the data for their own purposes. And that "the agency neglected to inquire whether airline passenger data used by the vendors had been returned or destroyed." And that "TSA did not consistently apply privacy protections in the course of its involvement in airline passenger data transfers."
This is major stuff. It shows that the TSA lied to the public about its use of personal data again and again and again.
Report #2: The GAO (Government Accountability Office) issued its own report about Secure Flight. Last year, Congress passed a law that said that the TSA couldn't implement Secure Flight until it met ten conditions: privacy protections, accuracy of data, oversight, cost and safeguards to ensure the system won't be abused or accessed by unauthorized people, etc. The GAO report found nine of the ten conditions hadn't yet been met and questioned whether Secure Flight would ultimately work.
Some tidbits: TSA plans to include the capability for criminal checks within Secure Flight (p. 12). The timetable has slipped by four months (p. 17). TSA might not be able to get personally identifiable passenger data in PNRs because of costs to the industry and lack of money (p.18). TSA plans to have intelligence analysts staffed within TSA to identify false positives (p.33). The DHS Investment Review Board has withheld approval from the "Transportation Vetting Platform" (p.39). TSA doesn't know how much the program will cost (p.51). Final privacy rule to be issued in April (p. 56).
These two reports put the TSA in a bind. It is prohibited by Congress from fielding Secure Flight until it meets a series of criteria. On the other hand, I'm not sure the TSA cares. It's already announced plans to roll out Secure Flight. In August they're going to implement the program nationwide with two still-unnamed airlines.
My own opinions of Secure Flight are well-known. I am a member of a working group to help evaluate the privacy of Secure Flight. While I believe that a program to match airline passengers against terrorist watch lists is a colossal waste of money that isn't going to make us any safer, I said "...assuming that we need to implement a program of matching airline passengers with names on terrorism watch lists, Secure Flight is a major improvement -- in almost every way -- over what is currently in place." I still believe that, but unfortunately I am prohibited by NDA from describing the improvements. I wish someone at TSA would get himself in front of reporters and do so.
IG report:
http://www.dhs.gov/interweb/assetlibrary/OIGr-05-12_Mar05.pdf
Article on IG report:
http://www.dailystar.com/dailystar/news/67386.php
My previous comments on Secure Flight:
http://www.schneier.com/crypto-gram-0501.html#9
http://www.schneier.com/crypto-gram-0502.html#1
Airline passenger data also used by the Center for Disease Control:
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2005/04/07/delta_ hoping_to_curb_spread_of_diseases/ or http://tinyurl.com/5snng
My commentary:
http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2005/04/more_uses_for_a.html
CRYPTO-GRAM
April 15, 2005
by Bruce Schneier
Founder and CTO
Counterpane Internet Security, Inc.
schneier@counterpane.com
http://www.schneier.com
Secure Flight Is in Trouble
Report #1: There's a report from the Department of Homeland Security's Inspector General that the TSA lied about its role in obtaining personal information about 12 million airline passengers to test Secure Flight.
The report doesn't explicitly say that the TSA lied, but the TSA lied.
The details are worth reading. And when you read it, keep in mind that it's written by the DHS's own Inspector General. I presume a more independent investigator would be even more severe. Not that the report isn't severe, mind you. Here are some highlights from an AP story:
"The report cites several occasions where TSA officials made inaccurate statements about passenger data:
"In September 2003, the agency's Freedom of Information Act staff received hundreds of requests from Jet Blue passengers asking if the TSA had their records. After a cursory search, the FOIA staff posted a notice on the TSA Web site that it had no JetBlue passenger data. Though the FOIA staff found JetBlue passenger records in TSA's possession in May, the notice stayed on the Web site for more than a year.
"In November 2003, TSA chief James Loy incorrectly told the Governmental Affairs Committee that certain kinds of passenger data were not being used to test passenger prescreening.
"In September 2003, a technology magazine reporter asked a TSA spokesman whether real data were used to test the passenger prescreening system. The spokesman said only fake data were used; the responses "were not accurate," the report said."
There's much more. The report reveals that TSA ordered Delta Air Lines to turn over passenger data in February 2002 to help the Secret Service determine whether terrorists or their associates were traveling in the vicinity of the Salt Lake City Olympics.
It also reveals that TSA used passenger data from JetBlue in the spring of 2003 to figure out how to change the number of people who would be selected for more screening under the existing system.
The report says that one of the TSA's contractors working on passenger prescreening, Lockheed Martin, used a data sample from ChoicePoint.
The report also details how outside contractors used the data for their own purposes. And that "the agency neglected to inquire whether airline passenger data used by the vendors had been returned or destroyed." And that "TSA did not consistently apply privacy protections in the course of its involvement in airline passenger data transfers."
This is major stuff. It shows that the TSA lied to the public about its use of personal data again and again and again.
Report #2: The GAO (Government Accountability Office) issued its own report about Secure Flight. Last year, Congress passed a law that said that the TSA couldn't implement Secure Flight until it met ten conditions: privacy protections, accuracy of data, oversight, cost and safeguards to ensure the system won't be abused or accessed by unauthorized people, etc. The GAO report found nine of the ten conditions hadn't yet been met and questioned whether Secure Flight would ultimately work.
Some tidbits: TSA plans to include the capability for criminal checks within Secure Flight (p. 12). The timetable has slipped by four months (p. 17). TSA might not be able to get personally identifiable passenger data in PNRs because of costs to the industry and lack of money (p.18). TSA plans to have intelligence analysts staffed within TSA to identify false positives (p.33). The DHS Investment Review Board has withheld approval from the "Transportation Vetting Platform" (p.39). TSA doesn't know how much the program will cost (p.51). Final privacy rule to be issued in April (p. 56).
These two reports put the TSA in a bind. It is prohibited by Congress from fielding Secure Flight until it meets a series of criteria. On the other hand, I'm not sure the TSA cares. It's already announced plans to roll out Secure Flight. In August they're going to implement the program nationwide with two still-unnamed airlines.
My own opinions of Secure Flight are well-known. I am a member of a working group to help evaluate the privacy of Secure Flight. While I believe that a program to match airline passengers against terrorist watch lists is a colossal waste of money that isn't going to make us any safer, I said "...assuming that we need to implement a program of matching airline passengers with names on terrorism watch lists, Secure Flight is a major improvement -- in almost every way -- over what is currently in place." I still believe that, but unfortunately I am prohibited by NDA from describing the improvements. I wish someone at TSA would get himself in front of reporters and do so.
IG report:
http://www.dhs.gov/interweb/assetlibrary/OIGr-05-12_Mar05.pdf
Article on IG report:
http://www.dailystar.com/dailystar/news/67386.php
My previous comments on Secure Flight:
http://www.schneier.com/crypto-gram-0501.html#9
http://www.schneier.com/crypto-gram-0502.html#1
Airline passenger data also used by the Center for Disease Control:
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2005/04/07/delta_ hoping_to_curb_spread_of_diseases/ or http://tinyurl.com/5snng
My commentary:
http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2005/04/more_uses_for_a.html
4/2/05
3/31/05
3/30/05
SUNS: Paul Shirley’s Road Ramblings
Self-deprecating humour, some cogent observations and refreshingly unfiltered. Start at the bottom of the page.
Self-deprecating humour, some cogent observations and refreshingly unfiltered. Start at the bottom of the page.
PbsWiki - Desert Wild Flowers
My mother-in-law just headed for Death Valley on a photography trip. She'll be excited if it really is the best year ever for flowers.
My mother-in-law just headed for Death Valley on a photography trip. She'll be excited if it really is the best year ever for flowers.
3/26/05
New Scientist Breaking News - Camouflaged octopuses 'walk' on two tentacles
(Check out the video on the New Scientist site. It's amazing.)
If you are using your limbs to disguise yourself, how do you flee danger without giving yourself away? The answer, when you have eight arms, is to use six arms for disguise and to walk across on the seafloor on the other two.
That is the extraordinary behaviour observed for the first time in two species of octopus by Christine Huffard's team from the University of California, Berkeley, US.
Defying the notion that bipedal motion requires muscles attached to a rigid skeleton, the octopuses used the strong, flexible muscles in their back arms to walk across the seabed when pursued by camera-wielding biologists.
The two species have slightly different strategies. Octopus marginatus from Indonesia wraps itself into a ball while walking, perhaps to imitate a coconut rolling with the current.
Tiny Octopus aculeatus of Australia holds up six of its arms to disguise itself as a clump of seaweed, while walking at up to 14 centimetres per second - faster than it can manage using more than two arms.
Leading immediately to a deluge of "Why did the octupus cross the road jokes..."
(Check out the video on the New Scientist site. It's amazing.)
If you are using your limbs to disguise yourself, how do you flee danger without giving yourself away? The answer, when you have eight arms, is to use six arms for disguise and to walk across on the seafloor on the other two.
That is the extraordinary behaviour observed for the first time in two species of octopus by Christine Huffard's team from the University of California, Berkeley, US.
Defying the notion that bipedal motion requires muscles attached to a rigid skeleton, the octopuses used the strong, flexible muscles in their back arms to walk across the seabed when pursued by camera-wielding biologists.
The two species have slightly different strategies. Octopus marginatus from Indonesia wraps itself into a ball while walking, perhaps to imitate a coconut rolling with the current.
Tiny Octopus aculeatus of Australia holds up six of its arms to disguise itself as a clump of seaweed, while walking at up to 14 centimetres per second - faster than it can manage using more than two arms.
Leading immediately to a deluge of "Why did the octupus cross the road jokes..."
3/25/05
Oliver Schroer-On the Camino Trail
Heard an interview with this musician on cbc radio one. His violin playing is amazing. This link covers his pilgramage through france. Two months just walking and thinking.
Heard an interview with this musician on cbc radio one. His violin playing is amazing. This link covers his pilgramage through france. Two months just walking and thinking.
3/23/05
3/19/05
3/12/05
3/10/05
2/16/05
From the Daily Reckoning mail list
So far, dear reader, it really has been another American Century. In the last century, America was still young, restless, earnest, with bulging muscles and an empty head... full of energy and ideas...bursting to make things and sell them...to make a name for itself...to get rich by working hard. In the 21st century, on the other hand, America has become soft, middle aged, with its noggin full of TV drivel - no wonder she seems to want to make a public spectacle of herself.
The tech bubble on Wall Street in the late '90s was silly and embarrassing. It really didn't matter. In fact, it was entertaining...and educational. People who should have lost money did. And they probably would have lost a lot more, but the feds stepped in and started throwing cash around. And now the whole country - economically and politically - has bubbled up.
From Washington, D.C. comes news that the real estate bubble is still taking air. Prices in the region rose 24% last year - six times as fast as GDP, eight times the rate of CPI inflation, 10 times a much as stocks. When you're making that kind of money, why save? And why not enjoy it? It's so easy to "take out" a little from time to time to pay for college, vacations, and renovations.
"When one segment of society loses its head," said a dinner guest last night, "it seems to infect the whole body of society: individuals, government and business, too."
Over the last five years, houses have beaten stocks almost everywhere in America. In hot markets - major cities on both coasts - the gains in houses have been spectacular. Many buyers never set foot on the property, says the Washington Times report. They buy before the place is built...and flip it before the carpet is laid down. And from our own MoneyWeek magazine in London comes news that the English are getting in on the game as well. Property prices in London have peaked out. Getting no offers, a friend told us she had taken her apartment off the market. "It was all a kind of fantasy," she explained. "We thought we were going to make so much money on it, we couldn't not sell it. But we actually like the place and are happy to hold onto it."
But in America, the fantasy of getting rich without risk or sweat has entered the bone marrow. Neither NASDAQ crash...nor a war...nor a recession...nor a drop in the dollar...has been able to get it out. Instead, it grows...metastasizes...and weakens the whole nation. And even the English want a piece of the action. House prices are still very high in England...and seem to be going down. So, many English buyers are looking for houses in America, says the MoneyWeek report. They might live in a rented apartment in London, but they have the pride of homeownership and the hope of profits - in America.
Yesterday, we mentioned our "Trade of the Decade." We made a little from rising gold prices, so far. And a little from falling stock prices. But the best is still ahead, we think. Richard Russell pointed out yesterday that dividend yields rose to over 10% at the bottom of the '30s bear market. At the darkest moment of WWII, they rose to 7.8%. And again in '82, they were over 7%.
When things look good, by contrast, yields fall. In 1929, yields fell to 3.1%. Never have they been lower than 2.6% - until recently. Now, dividend yields are below 2%. Never have stocks been more expensive, in other words, then they have been for the last five to seven years. Investors have made no money in that time. Instead, they've been worn out with mini-rallies and mini-retreats...back and forth, burning up energy...paying commission and taxes. Sooner or later, they'll get tired of it and stocks will go down. Then, they'll sink to the point where they yield 6%...7%...maybe even 10%.
The only reason they haven't gone down yet is the same reason U.S. consumers continue to ruin themselves...and housing speculators get so rich - the Greenspan Fed has humbugged them all. Now investors, homeowners, and speculators - all suffer the same symptoms - recklessness and delusions of grandeur.
So far, dear reader, it really has been another American Century. In the last century, America was still young, restless, earnest, with bulging muscles and an empty head... full of energy and ideas...bursting to make things and sell them...to make a name for itself...to get rich by working hard. In the 21st century, on the other hand, America has become soft, middle aged, with its noggin full of TV drivel - no wonder she seems to want to make a public spectacle of herself.
The tech bubble on Wall Street in the late '90s was silly and embarrassing. It really didn't matter. In fact, it was entertaining...and educational. People who should have lost money did. And they probably would have lost a lot more, but the feds stepped in and started throwing cash around. And now the whole country - economically and politically - has bubbled up.
From Washington, D.C. comes news that the real estate bubble is still taking air. Prices in the region rose 24% last year - six times as fast as GDP, eight times the rate of CPI inflation, 10 times a much as stocks. When you're making that kind of money, why save? And why not enjoy it? It's so easy to "take out" a little from time to time to pay for college, vacations, and renovations.
"When one segment of society loses its head," said a dinner guest last night, "it seems to infect the whole body of society: individuals, government and business, too."
Over the last five years, houses have beaten stocks almost everywhere in America. In hot markets - major cities on both coasts - the gains in houses have been spectacular. Many buyers never set foot on the property, says the Washington Times report. They buy before the place is built...and flip it before the carpet is laid down. And from our own MoneyWeek magazine in London comes news that the English are getting in on the game as well. Property prices in London have peaked out. Getting no offers, a friend told us she had taken her apartment off the market. "It was all a kind of fantasy," she explained. "We thought we were going to make so much money on it, we couldn't not sell it. But we actually like the place and are happy to hold onto it."
But in America, the fantasy of getting rich without risk or sweat has entered the bone marrow. Neither NASDAQ crash...nor a war...nor a recession...nor a drop in the dollar...has been able to get it out. Instead, it grows...metastasizes...and weakens the whole nation. And even the English want a piece of the action. House prices are still very high in England...and seem to be going down. So, many English buyers are looking for houses in America, says the MoneyWeek report. They might live in a rented apartment in London, but they have the pride of homeownership and the hope of profits - in America.
Yesterday, we mentioned our "Trade of the Decade." We made a little from rising gold prices, so far. And a little from falling stock prices. But the best is still ahead, we think. Richard Russell pointed out yesterday that dividend yields rose to over 10% at the bottom of the '30s bear market. At the darkest moment of WWII, they rose to 7.8%. And again in '82, they were over 7%.
When things look good, by contrast, yields fall. In 1929, yields fell to 3.1%. Never have they been lower than 2.6% - until recently. Now, dividend yields are below 2%. Never have stocks been more expensive, in other words, then they have been for the last five to seven years. Investors have made no money in that time. Instead, they've been worn out with mini-rallies and mini-retreats...back and forth, burning up energy...paying commission and taxes. Sooner or later, they'll get tired of it and stocks will go down. Then, they'll sink to the point where they yield 6%...7%...maybe even 10%.
The only reason they haven't gone down yet is the same reason U.S. consumers continue to ruin themselves...and housing speculators get so rich - the Greenspan Fed has humbugged them all. Now investors, homeowners, and speculators - all suffer the same symptoms - recklessness and delusions of grandeur.
2/14/05
2/3/05
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