For richer, for poorer, the new shape of a city
'Burbs now where you find poverty

The city of neighbourhoods is increasingly becoming a city of growing poverty, marked by a creeping ring of social decline around a richer inner core.

The normal segments of society that make up traditional ghettoes are so spread across the city, from Scarborough through North York to Etobicoke, that it is the affluent areas that are segregated — isolated communities cut off, not by gates and barbed wire, but by economic circumstance.

That's one lesson from the United Way's report on poverty in Toronto, released yesterday.

For if there are "ghettoes" in Toronto you may find them exactly where you're not looking — along the desirable paths of high-priced Rosedale and North Toronto, The Kingsway and Guildwood.

The term "ghetto" conjures images of bombed-out buildings, boarded-up businesses, abandoned homes turned into crack houses, a broken, desolate landscape, a slum, a no-go zone, particularly at night.

We are not there — yet.

In truth, our ghetto might just be the pockets of privilege — small islands of prosperity in a city-wide span of poverty. Here, you find the white and the wealthy. The 'burbs are where, increasingly, you find the city's poor, its newcomers. And a disproportionate number of the poor are people of colour.

Called Poverty by Postal Code, the report reveals the growth of poor neighbourhoods, away from the downtown core and into suburbia — a sort of reverse migration, the antithesis of the hole-in-the-doughnut effect that sees a hollowed-out downtown surrounded by a prosperous suburb.

Toronto's reality might present a problem that's deeper, more extensive and, therefore, more difficult to fix.

Between 1981 and 2001, the number of Toronto families jumped 15 per cent while the number of "poor" families increased 69 per cent. This means poor families are increasing at a rate more than four times their numbers in the population.

Of 522 recognized Toronto neighbourhoods, according to postal code, 23 of them are super-poor by any measure. Here, between 26 per cent and 40 per cent of families meet the country's definition of poverty.

In another 97 neighbourhoods, up to a quarter of the families are poor.

Only 177 neighbourhoods are ones of low poverty.

Then the numbers get interesting.

Neighbourhoods where at least a quarter of the families are listed as poor is strictly an old City of Toronto phenomenon, virtually unknown in the rest of the Toronto region.

Toronto has 120 such neighbourhoods. Only one exists in the rest of the Toronto region.

In 1981, more than half (228 of 428) the Toronto neighbourhoods were performing better than the Canadian average for poverty among families. Twenty years later, it's dropped to one-third of the total.

In the amalgamated city of Toronto, the number of poor neighbourhoods in North York and Scarborough and Etobicoke are increasing at startling speed, while the downtown area, in comparison, remains virtually unchanged over the last decade — at least in terms of the percentage growth of poor families.

The traditional "poverty U" stretching from northern Etobicoke, through downtown Toronto and out to north Scarborough has been replaced by a ring around the city.

This means the poor areas are closing in on an increasingly smaller, more affluent city.

As long-time residents and newcomers seek affordable housing options they are moving to the suburbs. So much so that the city of Toronto has seen a concentration of poverty in the suburbs.

Not only are they migrating there, but the normal mix of incomes that has made the city avoid the stigmatization and problems associated with subsidized housing projects is slowly eroding.

Not only is poverty increasing among families, but more and more of these families are grouped together in the same area, often the only areas where they can find a semblance of affordable housing.

Forty-three per cent of poor families live in high-poverty neighbourhoods today, compared to 18 per cent two decades ago.

Add the layer of immigrants and the picture becomes more grim. The size of the poor immigrant family in Toronto jumped 125 per cent between 1981 and 2001 compared to a 13 per cent rise in the number of Canadian-born family persons in poverty.

Then, add race and colour to the mix and the numbers are startling.

The study says visible minority families make up 46 per cent of the Toronto population, but 68 per cent of all poor families.

Some of them do live in average or even upscale neighbourhoods. But of all poor families living in the poorest neighbourhoods, visible minorities make up almost eight in 10.

That should be enough to send off alarm signals, especially when black youths have been turning to gang and gun activity in several of these distressed neighbourhoods.

Those quick to dismiss the poor families identified here as layabouts who are poor because they don't work, consider this:

Of the poor families in the very poor neighbourhoods, 87 per cent are working and 90 per cent of people in the high poverty areas work. The rate of employment across the city is 93 per cent.

People are running to the suburbs in search of cheaper housing. They are doubling and tripling up in single-family homes. They are working but can't make ends meet because too much of their salary is going toward food and shelter.

Newcomers are disproportionately affected. People of colour are at the bottom of the ladder.

The next time you hear about trouble in a particular area of the city, look at the maps in today's paper and you can make a lot of money betting that the trouble emanates from the areas of high poverty.

"We must act right now," says United Way head Frances Lankin.

Or watch the trend line move in the same direction — with destructive certainty — when the 2011 census data is released.

America and Britain waited too long and now it's costing them billions of dollars in urban renewal costs.